At Friday’s close, technicians were generally pretty bearish on equity indexes, based on the head and shoulders pattern identified below. (Click images to enlarge.)

Of course, this particular setup hasn’t panned out well so far:

In the jargon, this week’s rally decisively violated the neckline and pushed up to attempt a retest of the right shoulder. I [...]

At Friday’s close, technicians were generally pretty bearish on equity indexes, based on the head and shoulders pattern identified below. (Click images to enlarge.)

Of course, this particular setup hasn’t panned out well so far:

In the jargon, this week’s rally decisively violated the neckline and pushed up to attempt a retest of the right shoulder. I [...]

The key discussion point on Twitter today was the phenomenon of a rising VIX alongside a rising SPX. Dr. Brett has the data:
I went to the all-purpose database and found only 13 occasions since 1990 in which SPY has been up more than 2% on the day and VIX has closed higher on the day. [...]

This week, the market staged two very strong rallies. The first came Monday when Goldman Sachs handily beat earnings estimates. It posted its largest revenues ever and the entire financial sector shot higher. Most analysts realize that Goldman is in a league of its own, but the results were so strong that optimism spilled over [...]

Yesterday, the market staged a small rally after Goldman Sachs beat earnings estimates by a large margin. They had record revenues and while the results were impressive, most traders know that this company is in a league of its own. Other earnings from Novellus, CSX and Johnson & Johnson were “soft”. After the close, Intel [...]

Moving average analysis is one of the most important components of successful options trading. Determining whether your stock is trending or not, can be the difference between a profit and a loss.

Moving average analysis is one of the most important components of successful options trading. Determining whether your stock is trending or not, can be the difference between a profit and a loss.

This has been a wild week. The market has gone from a technical breakdown to a 7% rally in a matter of days. I believe the path was paved last week when bond auctions fared much better than expected. Blockbuster earnings from Goldman Sachs sparked a huge rally in financial stocks and the market pushed [...]

I propose the following rule of thumb for VIX interpretation:
If you think some VIX movement entails a proposition p and movement in the other volatility indexes VXN, RVX, and VXD doesn’t entail p, you shouldn’t believe p.
Why accept this rule? Because equity indexes are highly correlated, especially over the very short term, and volatility indexes [...]

I propose the following rule of thumb for VIX interpretation:
If you think some VIX movement entails a proposition p and movement in the other volatility indexes VXN, RVX, and VXD doesn’t entail p, you shouldn’t believe p.
Why accept this rule? Because equity indexes are highly correlated, especially over the very short term, and volatility indexes [...]